Tuesday, April 7, 2015

The Savage Shuffle

A number of the more industrious have been saying that patch 6.1 would make a major commodity essentially worthless since the announcement of that patch, more than a month later we find out if they were right...


Whether we call ourselves Goblins, Dragons, Hoaders, Trade Princes, or whatever - those with a focus on making obscene amounts of gold have agreed on one thing if nothing else in recent months: Patch 6.1 would reduce the raw gold value of a major commodity in Draenor. Many went as far as claiming it would drop to such an extent as to make it worthless (to us). I have been on the other side of that argument from the beginning. To be clear, I knew the price was going to drop. In fact on many servers Blood started taking a dive shortly after news of the changes to it's availability went public, as numerous Chicken Littles began liquidating their stock in preparation for the catastrophic price drop.

That in turn, caused the price to drop. At the end of the day, some of us are our own worst enemies...

The Median price currently for Savage Blood is listed as 352.93g on The Undermine Journal. When the announcement was made for 6.1 Blood was trading at around 800g on Blackhand. So, still a substantial drop, but is there still gold to be made there? Absolutely...

That's 49.66 Blood worth of Primals, and someone in Trade actively buying them in bulk...
Prior to 6.1 the only reliable way to farm Blood was through Barn Work Orders, the patch added another way by giving us daily visitors to our garrisons that let us trade materials for Primal Spirit, which we can in turn purchase Blood with. The trick here is how much are these things worth, how much profit can you make off of them, is it even worth it?

When doing trades we know that each Primal costs 5 of a particular material, Blood in turn costs 50 Primals. Ergo, 250 of a given material to purchase a single Savage Blood. With the Median Price listed above for the Blood (352.93g), and the Median Price of Starflower, (1.13g) we end up with an investment of 282.50g for a single Blood with a profit of 70.43g each (not including AH cut). That's not bad, but we can (and will) do better.

If you've spent much time looking at the picture above, you might notice that it appears a Rogue is attempting to buy something at a price that sounds silly to other people in Trade Chat. This screenshot was taken on the first day that Herb Trader was available on US realms. The character I'm on at the time is my Alchemist, I had just gotten the patterns I needed with him and now had a substantial amount of Blood in the gbank as a result of my stockpiling in anticipation of this day. I had started buying Herbs at 1g per, max. However, I was commonly finding them as cheap as 35s each on off days where Herbs weren't being used in the Trading Post.

I wish I could quit you Ancient Trading Mechanism...
My calculations at that point were an average of 50s spent on each herb, meaning that for me the cost of a single Blood was actually more like 125g. So yeah, I could afford to meet the Rogue at 250g each and still turn a nice profit (actually doubling my money on each one). Long story short, he got his trinket that day (from not having it to level 4 upgrade). It cost him more than the 250g he was hoping, and I also supplied him with the Catalysts and other materials he needed too.

All told I sold the guy 700 Alchemical Catalyst, 60 Savage Blood, 40 Sorcerous Fire, 40 Sorcerous Water, and 20 Sorcerous Earth. I sold another 75 Bloods to a Monk moments later. In the immortal words of Ice Cube, It Was a Good Day (for those confused: yes, the guy on Sesame Street and the family friendly film "Are We There Yet" was once a gangster rapper who graduated from N.W.A.).

Knowing how much you can expect to pay for the material trade in, means you've established the minimum price at which you're willing to invest. I keep my eye on the Auction House and buy materials below a certain threshold of profitability. If I stock up on Herbs at 1g and then move my Blood at 350+ I know I'm getting a return of 100g each (or more). I generally sell these in lots at higher than the lowest priced singles on the AH. 15 Blood for 350-400g each will sell, because it's more convenient to buy them that way than it is to click multiple times.

Additionally, develop a strategy for the best days to sell those materials. Bloods are worth less on days when the Herb Trader is in town, but worth more on days when the Dust Trader is available because of the rules of supply and demand. So a little self control can mean more profits.

We also, I hope have understood some of the ramifications of forward thinking with regards to patch notes. The importance of selectively stockpiling. The days of multiple guild banks stacked with glyphs and other materials in anticipation of a new patch/expansion may be over. But it doesn't mean you can't make a tidy sum still with some careful planning on patch day. And with that, I leave you.

Always Be Closing...


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